Qualification Scenarios for World Test Championship 2023
The teams which are in the race are Australia, South Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. New Zealand, Bangladesh, West Indies are out of the race already. Australia is in the safe zone with 75% as of now. All they need to do is get 1 win and 2 draws in the remaining 7 test matches of their cycle - 3 vs South Africa and 4 vs India. But if they lose all 7 matches their percentage will drop to 47.37 then it will be difficult for them.
For Sri Lanka if they need to stay in contention they need to win the remaining two away tests against New Zealand. If they win all 2 their percentage will rise to 61.11 and they will stay alive in the race. Currently, they are in 52.78% and even if they lose 1 their percentage will drop to 52.78.
For South Africa, they need to win at least 3 matches in the remaining 5 test matches, in that 3 matches against Australia will be an away series for them and the remaining 2 matches are home test series against West Indies. If they lose all 3 against Australia and win 2 matches against West Indies their points would drop to 53.33. Hence they require at least 1 win against Australia to stay in the race for finals.
For Pakistan 2 home defeats have affected their chances of qualifying for the WTC 2023 finals. With only three Tests left in this cycle (one against England in Karachi and two home games against New Zealand), the maximum that they can finish on is 54.76%. It is very likely that at least two teams will finish with higher percentages.
India is currently fourth on the points table, but if they win each of their remaining six Tests - two against Bangladesh and four against Australia - then their percentage will rise to 68.06, which will surely be enough for a top-two finish (Australia’s numbers will drop if they lose four to India). If India finishes with a 5-1 win-loss record, their percentage will be a healthy 62.5, which will still ensure qualification as both Australia and South Africa can’t go past that number. However, if they lose two, their percentage will drop to 56.94, which will leave them relying on other results.